Nyob rau hauv cov tsoos off-season rau shipping, nruj shipping chaw, nce nqi freight, thiab ib tug muaj zog off-season tau dhau los ua cov lus tseem ceeb hauv kev ua lag luam.Cov ntaub ntawv tso tawm los ntawm Shanghai Shipping Exchange qhia tau hais tias txij thaum kawg ntawm Lub Peb Hlis 2024 txog rau tam sim no, tus nqi thauj khoom los ntawm Shanghai Chaw nres nkoj mus rau qhov chaw nres nkoj yooj yim hauv South America tau nce 95.88%, thiab tus nqi thauj khoom los ntawm Shanghai Chaw nres nkoj mus rau qhov chaw nres nkoj yooj yim. Kev ua lag luam hauv Tebchaws Europe tau nce 43.88%.
Kev lag luam sab hauv tsom xam tias yam xws li kev txhim kho kev lag luam xav tau hauv Tebchaws Europe thiab Tebchaws Meskas thiab kev tsis sib haum xeeb nyob rau hauv Hiav Txwv Liab yog qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb rau kev nce nqi thauj khoom tam sim no.Nrog rau kev tuaj txog ntawm lub caij nyoog siab tshaj plaws shipping lub caij, thawv shipping nqi yuav nce ntxiv rau yav tom ntej.
Cov nqi thauj khoom nyob sab Europe tau nce ntau dua 20% hauv ib lub lis piam
Txij li thaum pib lub Plaub Hlis 2024, Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index tso tawm los ntawm Shanghai Shipping Exchange tau nce ntxiv.Cov ntaub ntawv tshaj tawm rau lub Tsib Hlis 10 tau pom tias Shanghai qhov kev xa tawm thoob ntiaj teb cov thawv thauj khoom thauj khoom yog 2305.79 cov ntsiab lus, nce ntawm 18.8% ntawm lub lim tiam dhau los, nce 33.21% los ntawm 1730.98 cov ntsiab lus rau Lub Peb Hlis 29, thiab nce 33.21% los ntawm 1730.98 cov ntsiab lus. Lub Peb Hlis 29, uas tau siab dua li lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2023 ua ntej muaj kev kub ntxhov ntawm Hiav Txwv Liab.Kev nce ntawm 132.16%.
Ntawm lawv, txoj kev mus rau South America thiab Europe tau ntsib qhov nce siab tshaj plaws.Tus nqi thauj khoom (sea freight thiab hiav txwv freight surcharges) xa tawm los ntawm Shanghai Chaw nres nkoj mus rau South America cov chaw nres nkoj yooj yim lag luam yog US $ 5,461 / TEU (lub thawv nrog ntev ntawm 20 ko taw, tseem hu ua TEU), nce 18.1% los ntawm lub sijhawm dhau los thiab nce ntawm 95.88% los ntawm lub Peb Hlis kawg.Tus nqi thauj khoom (kev xa khoom thiab kev xa khoom ntxiv) xa tawm los ntawm Shanghai Chaw nres nkoj mus rau European chaw nres nkoj yooj yim lag luam yog US $ 2,869 / TEU, nce siab ntawm 24.7% ntawm lub lim tiam dhau los, nce ntawm 43.88% txij li lub Peb Hlis kawg, thiab nce ntxiv. ntawm 305.8% txij lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2023.
Tus neeg saib xyuas kev lag luam xa khoom ntawm lub ntiaj teb digital logistics muab kev pabcuam Yunqunar Logistics Technology Group (tom qab no hu ua "Yunqunar") tau hais hauv kev xam phaj nrog cov neeg sau xov xwm tias pib txij lub Plaub Hlis Ntuj xyoo no, nws tuaj yeem xav tias kev xa mus rau Latin. America, Europe, North America, thiab Freight tus nqi rau txoj kev nyob rau hauv Middle East, Is Nrias teb thiab Pakistan tau nce, thiab qhov kev nce ntxiv tau tshaj tawm nyob rau lub Tsib Hlis.
Cov ntaub ntawv tso tawm los ntawm Drewry, lub koom haum tshawb fawb thiab kev sab laj, lub Tsib Hlis 10 kuj tau qhia tias Drewry World Container Index (WCI) tau nce mus txog $ 3,159 / FEU (lub thawv nrog qhov ntev ntawm 40 feet) lub lim tiam no (raws li lub Tsib Hlis 9), uas zoo ib yam nrog 2022 Nws tau nce 81% piv nrog tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los thiab yog 122% siab dua qhov nruab nrab ntawm US $ 1,420 / FEU ua ntej muaj kev sib kis hauv 2019.
Tsis ntev los no, ntau lub tuam txhab xa khoom, suav nrog Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), Maersk, CMA CGM, thiab Hapag-Lloyd, tau tshaj tawm cov nqi nce.Coj CMA CGM ua piv txwv.Thaum kawg ntawm lub Plaub Hlis, CMA CGM tshaj tawm tias pib txij lub Tsib Hlis 15, nws yuav hloov kho tshiab FAK (Freight All Kinds) cov qauv rau Asia-Northern Europe txoj kev mus rau US $ 2,700 / TEU thiab US $ 5,000 / FEU.Yav dhau los, lawv tau nce los ntawm US $ 500 / TEU thiab US $ 1,000 / FEU;Lub Tsib Hlis 10, CMA CGM tshaj tawm tias pib txij Lub Rau Hli 1, nws yuav nce FAK tus nqi rau cov khoom thauj los ntawm Asia mus rau Nordic ports.Tus qauv tshiab yog siab li US $ 6,000 / FEU.Ib zaug ntxiv los ntawm $1,000/FEU.
Ke Wensheng, CEO ntawm lub ntiaj teb shipping loj loj Maersk, tau hais hauv lub rooj sib tham tsis ntev los no hais tias cov khoom ntim ntawm Maersk txoj kev European tau nce 9%, feem ntau yog vim muaj kev xav tau zoo los ntawm European cov neeg xa khoom los ntxiv cov khoom muag.Txawm li cas los xij, qhov teeb meem ntawm qhov chaw nruj kuj tau tshwm sim, thiab ntau tus neeg xa khoom yuav tsum them tus nqi thauj khoom ntau dua kom tsis txhob thauj khoom qeeb.
Thaum tus nqi thauj khoom tau nce, Tuam Tshoj-Europe freight tsheb ciav hlau nqi kuj nce.Tus neeg thauj khoom thauj khoom thauj khoom thauj ntawm Tuam Tshoj-Tebchaws Europe freight tsheb ciav hlau hais rau cov neeg sau xov xwm tias tam sim no qhov kev thov thauj khoom rau Tuam Tshoj-Tebchaws Europe freight tsheb ciav hlau tau nce ntau, thiab cov nqi thauj khoom ntawm qee cov kab tau nce los ntawm US $ 200-300, thiab zoo li yuav nce ntxiv hauv. yav tom ntej."Tus nqi ntawm cov khoom thauj hauv hiav txwv tau nce, thiab qhov chaw cia khoom thiab sijhawm sijhawm tsis tuaj yeem ua tau raws li cov neeg siv khoom xav tau, ua rau qee cov khoom xa mus rau kev thauj mus los.Txawm li cas los xij, kev thauj mus los ntawm kev tsheb ciav hlau muaj peev xwm raug txwv, thiab qhov kev thov rau qhov chaw xa khoom tau nce siab nyob rau lub sijhawm luv, uas yuav cuam tshuam rau cov nqi thauj khoom. "
Cov teeb meem tsis txaus ntawm lub thawv rov qab
“Txawm hais tias nws yog kev thauj khoom lossis kev tsheb ciav hlau, muaj qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov ntim khoom.Hauv qee qhov chaw, nws tsis tuaj yeem xaj cov thawv.Tus nqi xauj tsev ntawm lub khw yog ntau dua li qhov nce ntawm cov nqi thauj khoom. "Ib tug neeg hauv kev lag luam ntim khoom hauv Guangdong hais rau cov neeg sau xov xwm.
Piv txwv li, nws hais tias tus nqi ntawm kev siv 40HQ (40-foot-siab thawv) ntawm txoj kev Tuam Tshoj-Europe yog US $ 500-600 xyoo tas los, uas tau nce mus rau US $ 1,000-1,200 nyob rau lub Ib Hlis xyoo no.Tam sim no nws tau nce mus rau ntau dua US $ 1,500, thiab tshaj US $ 2,000 hauv qee thaj chaw.
Tus neeg xa khoom thauj khoom ntawm Shanghai Chaw nres nkoj kuj tau hais rau cov neeg sau xov xwm tias qee qhov chaw txawv teb chaws tam sim no muaj cov thawv ntim tag nrho, thiab tseem muaj cov thawv ntim tsis txaus hauv Suav teb.Tus nqi ntawm cov thawv khoob hauv Shanghai thiab Duisburg, lub teb chaws Yelemees, tau nce los ntawm US $ 1,450 hauv lub Peb Hlis mus rau tam sim no US $ 1,900.
Tus neeg saib xyuas kev lag luam thauj khoom tau hais los saum toj no ntawm Yunqunar tau hais tias qhov laj thawj tseem ceeb rau kev nce nqi ntawm cov thawv ntim khoom yog vim muaj kev tsis sib haum xeeb hauv Hiav Txwv Liab, ntau tus tswv nkoj tau hla mus rau Cape of Good Hope, uas. ua rau lub thawv hloov pauv tsawg kawg yog 2-3 lub lis piam ntev dua li lub sijhawm ib txwm ua, ua rau cov ntim khoob.Liquidity slows.
Kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb kev lag luam kev lag luam (thaum ntxov txog rau ib nrab lub Tsib Hlis) tso tawm los ntawm Dexun Logistics thaum Lub Tsib Hlis 9 tau taw qhia tias tom qab lub Tsib Hlis hnub so, tag nrho cov thawv ntim khoom tsis tau zoo dua.Muaj qhov sib txawv ntawm qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov thawv ntim khoom, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov thawv ntim loj thiab siab, thiab qee lub tuam txhab xa khoom txuas ntxiv ntxiv dag zog rau kev tswj hwm kev siv cov ntim ntawm Latin American txoj kev.Cov thawv tshiab ua nyob rau hauv Suav teb tau raug booked ua ntej lub Rau Hli kawg.
Xyoo 2021, cuam tshuam los ntawm COVID-19 kev sib kis, kev lag luam txawv teb chaws "thawj poob qis thiab tom qab ntawd sawv", thiab cov saw hlau thoob ntiaj teb tau ntsib ntau lub xeev uas tsis tau xav txog.Kev xa rov qab ntawm cov ntim ntim thoob ntiaj teb tsis zoo, thiab kev faib thoob ntiaj teb ntawm cov ntim khoom tsis sib xws.Ib tug loj tus naj npawb ntawm cov thawv ntim tau rov qab rau hauv Tebchaws Meskas, Tebchaws Europe, Australia thiab lwm qhov chaw, thiab kuv lub tebchaws tsis txaus ntawm cov thawv xa tawm.Yog li ntawd, cov tuam txhab ntim khoom ntim puv ntawm kev txiav txim thiab muaj peev xwm ntau lawm.Nws tsis yog txog thaum kawg ntawm 2021 tias qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov thawv maj mam txo qis.
Nrog rau kev txhim kho cov thawv ntim khoom thiab kev rov ua haujlwm ntawm kev ua haujlwm hauv kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb, muaj ntau dhau ntawm cov thawv ntim khoom lag luam hauv kev lag luam los ntawm 2022 txog 2023, kom txog rau thaum lub thawv tsis txaus rau xyoo no.
Tus nqi thauj khoom tuaj yeem nce ntxiv
Hais txog cov laj thawj ntawm kev nce siab hauv cov nqi thauj khoom tsis ntev los no, tus neeg saib xyuas kev lag luam thauj khoom tau hais los saum toj no ntawm YQN tau txheeb xyuas rau cov neeg sau xov xwm tias ua ntej, Tebchaws Meskas tau pib xaus rau theem destocking thiab nkag mus rau theem restocking.Kev thauj mus los theem ntawm txoj kev hla-Pacific tau maj mam rov qab los, uas tau txhawb nqa tus nqi thauj khoom nce.Qhov thib ob, txhawm rau zam kom tsis txhob muaj peev xwm hloov tau los ntawm Tebchaws Meskas, cov tuam txhab mus rau Asmeskas kev lag luam tau coj kom zoo dua ntawm Latin American kev lag luam, suav nrog kev lag luam tsheb tsim, kev lag luam kev lag luam, thiab lwm yam, thiab tau xa lawv cov kab ntau lawm mus rau Latin America. , ua rau muaj kev xav tawg ntau ntawm kev thov rau Latin American txoj kev.Ntau lub tuam txhab xa khoom xa mus rau Mexico tau ntxiv kom tau raws li qhov xav tau ntau ntxiv.Thib peb, qhov xwm txheej hauv Hiav Txwv Liab tau ua rau muaj kev tsis txaus ntawm cov peev txheej ntawm cov txheej txheem European.Los ntawm cov chaw xa khoom mus rau cov thawv ntim khoom, cov nqi thauj khoom nyob sab Europe kuj tseem nce ntxiv.Plaub, lub caij nyoog siab tshaj plaws ntawm kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb yog ntxov dua li xyoo dhau los.Feem ntau Lub Rau Hli txhua xyoo nkag mus rau lub caij ntuj sov muag khoom txawv teb chaws, thiab cov nqi thauj khoom yuav nce raws li.Xyoo no tus nqi thauj khoom tau nce ib hlis ua ntej tshaj xyoo dhau los, uas txhais tau hais tias xyoo no lub caij muag khoom tau los txog thaum ntxov.
Zheshang Securities tau tshaj tawm tsab ntawv tshawb fawb rau lub Tsib Hlis 11 lub npe "Yuav ua li cas saib qhov tsis ntev los no counterintuitive surge nyob rau hauv thawv shipping nqi?"Nws tau hais tias qhov kev tsis sib haum xeeb nyob rau hauv Hiav Txwv Liab tau ua rau muaj kev sib cav sib ceg.Ntawm qhov tod tes, kev thauj nkoj hla tau ua rau muaj kev nce hauv kev thauj mus los., Ntawm qhov tod tes, qhov poob ntawm lub nkoj turnover efficiency tau ua rau nruj ntim turnover ntawm cov chaw nres nkoj, ntxiv exacerbating mov saw tensions.Tsis tas li ntawd, qhov kev thov-sab margin tau txhim kho, cov ntaub ntawv macroeconomic hauv Tebchaws Europe thiab Tebchaws Meskas tau txhim kho marginally, thiab ua ke nrog kev cia siab rau kev nce nqi thauj khoom hauv lub caij nyoog siab, cov tswv cov khoom thauj khoom tau npaj ua ntej.Ntxiv mus, Asmeskas kab tau nkag mus rau lub sijhawm tseem ceeb ntawm kev kos npe rau cov ntawv cog lus ntev, thiab cov tuam txhab xa khoom muaj kev txhawb nqa kom nce nqi.
Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, daim ntawv tshaj tawm kev tshawb fawb ntseeg tias cov qauv siab concentration thiab kev lag luam sib koom ua ke hauv kev lag luam ntim khoom lag luam tau tsim lub zog tsav los txhawb cov nqi.Zheshang Securities tau hais tias cov tuam txhab lag luam txawv teb chaws cov thawv ntim khoom muaj cov qib siab ntawm kev xav.Raws li lub Tsib Hlis 10, 2024, kaum lub tuam txhab ntim cov thawv ntim saum toj kawg nkaus suav txog 84.2% ntawm lub peev xwm thauj mus los.Tsis tas li ntawd, kev lag luam alliances thiab kev koom tes tau tsim los ntawm cov tuam txhab.Ntawm qhov tod tes, nyob rau hauv cov ntsiab lus ntawm cov khoom tsis zoo thiab kev xav tau ib puag ncig, nws yuav pab tau kom txo qis kev sib tw nqi los ntawm kev ncua kev caij nkoj thiab tswj kev thauj mus los.Ntawm qhov tod tes, nyob rau hauv cov ntsiab lus ntawm kev txhim kho cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau kev sib raug zoo, nws xav kom ua tiav cov nqi thauj khoom ntau dua los ntawm kev sib koom ua ke nce nqi.
Txij li thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2023, Yemen cov tub rog Houthi tau rov ua dua cov nkoj hauv Hiav Txwv Liab thiab cov dej uas nyob ib sab.Ntau lub nkoj loj thoob plaws ntiaj teb tsis muaj kev xaiv tab sis yuav tsum ncua kev taug kev ntawm lawv lub nkoj ntim hauv Hiav Txwv Liab thiab nws cov dej uas nyob ib sab thiab hloov lawv txoj kev ncig ntawm Cape of Good Hope hauv Africa.Xyoo no, qhov xwm txheej hauv Hiav Txwv Liab tseem nce ntxiv, thiab cov hlab ntsha thauj khoom tau raug thaiv, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov khoom siv hauv Asia-Europe, uas tau cuam tshuam loj heev.
Hais txog lub neej yav tom ntej ntawm lub thawv xa khoom lag luam, Dexun Logistics tau hais tias nyob rau hauv qhov kev pom ntawm qhov xwm txheej tam sim no, cov nqi thauj khoom yuav nyob ruaj khov nyob rau yav tom ntej, thiab cov tuam txhab xa khoom tau npaj ib puag ncig tshiab ntawm kev thauj khoom nce.
"Cov nqi thauj khoom thauj khoom yuav nce ntxiv mus rau yav tom ntej.Ua ntej, kev muag khoom txawv teb chaws lub caij nyoog tseem tab tom txuas ntxiv, thiab Olympics yuav muaj nyob rau hauv Tebchaws Europe thaum Lub Xya Hli xyoo no, uas tuaj yeem thawb cov nqi thauj khoom;thib ob, destocking nyob rau hauv cov teb chaws Europe thiab lub tebchaws United States tau pib xaus, thiab domestic kev muag khoom nyob rau hauv lub tebchaws United States Nws tseem yog pheej nce nws cov kev cia siab rau txoj kev loj hlob ntawm lub teb chaws cov khw muag khoom kev lag luam.Vim tias qhov kev thov nce ntxiv thiab lub peev xwm thauj khoom nruj, cov nqi thauj khoom yuav tsum tau nce ntxiv rau lub sijhawm luv luv, "said Yunqunar qhov chaw saum toj no.
Post lub sij hawm: May-17-2024
